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Predictions- Chicago Runoff 2023


Bold and underline signifies defeat of sitting alder.

Italics signify predictions of least confidence.

Ward

Original Predicted Runoff Winner Before Initial 2/28 Election

Predicted Winner Now, April 2nd

Mayor

Johnson

Vallas 52-48

4

Robinson

Robinson

5

Yancy

Yancy

6

Hall

Hall

10

Guajardo

Chico

11

Lee

Lee

21

Mosley

Mosley

24

M. Scott

M. Scott

29

Taliaferro

Taliaferro

30

Gutierrez

Gutierrez

36

Torres Whitt

Villegas

43

Taylor Nations

Knudsen

45

Mathias

Gardiner

46

Walz

Clay

48

Dunne

Dunne

Final look at my "probability to become mayor over time" chart:



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