top of page
  • Zach

Predictions- Chicago 2023

Updated: Feb 27

See more detailed information for each race below charts.

Bold and underline signifies defeat of sitting alder.

Italics signify predictions of least confidence.


Final version reflects 2.27.23 edits.

Ward

Runoff?

Predicted Winner

Runoff Opponent

Mayor

Yes

Johnson

Vallas

1

Yes

La Spata

Royko

4

Yes

Robinson

Butler

5

Yes

Yancy

Piemonte

6

Yes

Hall

Brutus

8

No

Harris

9

No

Beale

10

Yes

Guajardo

Chico

11

Yes

Lee

Ciaravino

12

only 2 candidates

Ramirez

13

only 2 candidates

Quinn

14

only 2 candidates

Gutierrez

15

No

Lopez

16

No

Coleman

18

only 2 candidates

Wills

19

No

O'Shea

20

No

Taylor

21

Yes

Mosley

Brown

22

No

Rodriguez

24

Yes

M. Scott

C. Scott

25

only 2 candidates

Sigcho


Ward

Runoff?

Predicted Winner

Runoff Opponent

26

Yes

Fuentes

Perez

28

No

Ervin

29

No

Taliaferro

30

Yes

Gutierrez

Cruz

31

only 2 candidates

Cardona

33

No

Rodriguez

34

only 2 candidates

Conway

36

Yes

Torres Whitt

Villegas

37

No

Mitts

38

No

Sposato

39

only 2 candidates

Dasgupta

40

No

Vasquez

41

only 2 candidates

Struebing

43

Yes

Taylor Nations

Knudsen

45

Yes

Mathias

Gardiner

46

Yes

Walz

Clay

48

Yes

Dunne

Ward

49

No

Hadden

50

only 2 candidates

Silverstein


Mayor

Runoff? - Yes

First round vote %:


Vallas - 27

Johnson - 22

Lightfoot - 18

Garcia - 16

Wilson - 12

King - 3

Less than 3% - Buckner, Green, Sawyer


Johnson defeats Vallas in close runoff which really could go either way. (A Vallas-Lightfoot runoff is also highly possible and Vallas would likely win that. Garcia is not going to be mayor.)

Johnson is endorsed.


1st - Current Alder is Daniel La Spata

Runoff? - Yes

Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:


La Spata

Royko

Moreno

Schneider


La Spata defeats Royko in close runoff.

La Spata is endorsed.


(This is one of the toughest to call, with four candidates who will all get significant support and have strong funding.)


4th - Outgoing Alder is Sophia King

Runoff? - Yes

Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:


Lamont Robinson

Prentice Butler

Khari Humphries

(3 other candidates)


Robinson defeats Butler in runoff. (Robinson is strong enough here he may even get 50% in the first round, which is rare for a non-incumbent in an election with this many candidates)

Humphries is endorsed.


5th - Outgoing Alder is Leslie Hairston

Runoff? - Yes

Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:


Desmon Yancy

Gabriel Piemonte

Renita Ward

Jocelyn Hare

Tina Hone

(6 other candidates)


Yancy defeats Piemonte in runoff.

Hare is endorsed, but also consider Piemonte.


6th - Outgoing Alder is Roderick Sawyer

Runoff? - Yes

Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:


William Hall

Patrick Brutus

Richard Wooten

Aja Kearney

(7 other candidates)


Hall defeats Brutus in runoff.

Hall is endorsed.


8th - Current Alder is Michelle Harris

Runoff? - No

Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:


Michelle Harris

Linda Hudson

Sean Flynn


Harris wins in first round.

Flynn is endorsed.



9th - Current Alder is Anthony Beale

Runoff? - No

Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:


Anthony Beale

Cleopatra Draper


Beale wins in first round.

No endorsement. Draper is the progressive choice, but I have concerns.


10th - Outgoing Alder is Susan Sadlowski Garza

Runoff? - Yes

Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:


Ana Guajardo

Peter Chico

Oscar Sanchez

Jessica Venegas


Guajardo defeats Chico in runoff. (Another tough one here with 4 significant candidates and no clear frontrunner.)

Sanchez is endorsed.


11th - Current (appointed) Alder is Nicole Lee

Runoff? - Yes

Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:


Nicole Lee

Tony Ciaravino

Ambria Taylor

Vida Jimenez

(3 other candidates)


Lee defeats Ciaravino in runoff.

Taylor is endorsed.


12th - Current (appointed) Alder is Anabel Abarca

Runoff? - Only 2 candidates, not possible

Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:


Julia Ramirez

Anabel Abarca


Ramirez wins in first round. (This is going to be a close one.)

Ramirez is endorsed.


13th - Current Alder is Marty Quinn

Runoff? - Only 2 candidates, not possible

Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:


Marty Quinn

Paul Bruton


Quinn wins in first round.

Bruton is endorsed.


14th - Outgoing Alder is Ed Burke

Runoff? - Only 2 candidates, not possible

Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:


Jeylú Gutierrez

Raul Reyes


Gutierrez wins in first round.

Gutierrez is endorsed.


15th - Current Alder is Raymond Lopez

Runoff? - No

Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:


Raymond Lopez

Vicko Alvarez

(1 other candidate)


Lopez defeats Alvarez in close first round.

Alvarez is endorsed.


16th - Current Alder is Stephanie Coleman

Runoff? - No

Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:


Stephanie Coleman

Carolynn Crump

Eddie Johnson


Coleman wins in first round.

Coleman is endorsed.


18th - Current Alder is Derrick Curtis

Runoff? - Only 2 candidates, not possible

Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:


Heather Wills

Derrick Curtis


Wills wins in first round.

Wills is endorsed.


19th - Current Alder is Matt O'Shea

Runoff? - No

Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:


Matt O'Shea

Michael Cummings

Tim Noonan


O'Shea wins in first round.

Noonan is endorsed.


20th - Current Alder is Jeannette Taylor

Runoff? - No

Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:


Jeannette Taylor

Jennifer Maddox

Andre Smith


Taylor wins in first round.

Taylor is endorsed.


21st - Outgoing Alder is Howard Brookins

Runoff? - Yes

Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:


Ronnie Mosley

Preston Brown

Cornell Dantzler

Ayana Clark

Daliah Goree

(2 other candidates)


Mosley defeats Brown in runoff.

Clark is endorsed.


22nd - Current Alder is Michael Rodriguez

Runoff? - No

Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:


Michael Rodriguez

Neftalie Gonzalez


Rodriguez wins in first round.

Rodriguez is endorsed.


23rd - Current Alder is Silvana Tabares

Runoff? - Only 2 candidates, not possible

Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:


Silvana Tabares

Eddie Guillen


Tabares wins in first round.

Guillen is endorsed.


24th - Current (appointed) Alder is Monique Scott

Runoff? - Yes

Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:


Monique Scott

Creative Scott

Vetress Boyce

Luther Woodruff

(3 other candidates)


Monique Scott defeats Creative Scott in a close runoff.

No endorsement. Edward Ward is probably the most progressive choice here but doesn't seem to demonstrate any substantial support from what I can tell.


25th - Current Alder is Byron Sigcho

Runoff? - Only 2 candidates, not possible

Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:


Byron Sigcho

Aida Flores


Sigcho wins in close first round.

No endorsement. Sigcho is the more progressive option but I have concerns.


26th - Outgoing Alder is Roberto Maldonado

Runoff? - Yes

Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:


Jessie Fuentes

Julian Perez

Angee Rodriguez


Fuentes defeats Perez in runoff.

Fuentes is endorsed.


28th - Current Alder is Jason Ervin

Runoff? - Only 2 candidates, not possible

Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:


Jason Ervin

Shawn Walker


Ervin wins in first round.

No endorsement. Walker was placed back on the ballot late. He isn't a good candidate but neither is Ervin.


29th - Current Alder is Chris Taliaferro

Runoff? - No

Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:


Chris Taliaferro

Corey Dooley

CB Johnson


Taliaferro wins in first round.