Predictions- Chicago 2023
Updated: Feb 27
See more detailed information for each race below charts.
Bold and underline signifies defeat of sitting alder.
Italics signify predictions of least confidence.
Final version reflects 2.27.23 edits.
Ward | Runoff? | Predicted Winner | Runoff Opponent |
Mayor | Yes | Johnson | Vallas |
1 | Yes | La Spata | Royko |
4 | Yes | Robinson | Butler |
5 | Yes | Yancy | Piemonte |
6 | Yes | Hall | Brutus |
8 | No | Harris | |
9 | No | Beale | |
10 | Yes | Guajardo | Chico |
11 | Yes | Lee | Ciaravino |
12 | only 2 candidates | Ramirez | |
13 | only 2 candidates | Quinn | |
14 | only 2 candidates | Gutierrez | |
15 | No | Lopez | |
16 | No | Coleman | |
18 | only 2 candidates | Wills | |
19 | No | O'Shea | |
20 | No | Taylor | |
21 | Yes | Mosley | Brown |
22 | No | Rodriguez | |
24 | Yes | M. Scott | C. Scott |
25 | only 2 candidates | Sigcho |
Ward | Runoff? | Predicted Winner | Runoff Opponent |
26 | Yes | Fuentes | Perez |
28 | No | Ervin | |
29 | No | Taliaferro | |
30 | Yes | Gutierrez | Cruz |
31 | only 2 candidates | Cardona | |
33 | No | Rodriguez | |
34 | only 2 candidates | Conway | |
36 | Yes | Torres Whitt | Villegas |
37 | No | Mitts | |
38 | No | Sposato | |
39 | only 2 candidates | Dasgupta | |
40 | No | Vasquez | |
41 | only 2 candidates | Struebing | |
43 | Yes | Taylor Nations | Knudsen |
45 | Yes | Mathias | Gardiner |
46 | Yes | Walz | Clay |
48 | Yes | Dunne | Ward |
49 | No | Hadden | |
50 | only 2 candidates | Silverstein | |
Mayor
Runoff? - Yes
First round vote %:
Vallas - 27
Johnson - 22
Lightfoot - 18
Garcia - 16
Wilson - 12
King - 3
Less than 3% - Buckner, Green, Sawyer
Johnson defeats Vallas in close runoff which really could go either way. (A Vallas-Lightfoot runoff is also highly possible and Vallas would likely win that. Garcia is not going to be mayor.)
Johnson is endorsed.
1st - Current Alder is Daniel La Spata
Runoff? - Yes
Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:
La Spata
Royko
Moreno
Schneider
La Spata defeats Royko in close runoff.
La Spata is endorsed.
(This is one of the toughest to call, with four candidates who will all get significant support and have strong funding.)
4th - Outgoing Alder is Sophia King
Runoff? - Yes
Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:
Lamont Robinson
Prentice Butler
Khari Humphries
(3 other candidates)
Robinson defeats Butler in runoff. (Robinson is strong enough here he may even get 50% in the first round, which is rare for a non-incumbent in an election with this many candidates)
Humphries is endorsed.
5th - Outgoing Alder is Leslie Hairston
Runoff? - Yes
Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:
Desmon Yancy
Gabriel Piemonte
Renita Ward
Jocelyn Hare
Tina Hone
(6 other candidates)
Yancy defeats Piemonte in runoff.
Hare is endorsed, but also consider Piemonte.
6th - Outgoing Alder is Roderick Sawyer
Runoff? - Yes
Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:
William Hall
Patrick Brutus
Richard Wooten
Aja Kearney
(7 other candidates)
Hall defeats Brutus in runoff.
Hall is endorsed.
8th - Current Alder is Michelle Harris
Runoff? - No
Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:
Michelle Harris
Linda Hudson
Sean Flynn
Harris wins in first round.
Flynn is endorsed.
9th - Current Alder is Anthony Beale
Runoff? - No
Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:
Anthony Beale
Cleopatra Draper
Beale wins in first round.
No endorsement. Draper is the progressive choice, but I have concerns.
10th - Outgoing Alder is Susan Sadlowski Garza
Runoff? - Yes
Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:
Ana Guajardo
Peter Chico
Oscar Sanchez
Jessica Venegas
Guajardo defeats Chico in runoff. (Another tough one here with 4 significant candidates and no clear frontrunner.)
Sanchez is endorsed.
11th - Current (appointed) Alder is Nicole Lee
Runoff? - Yes
Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:
Nicole Lee
Tony Ciaravino
Ambria Taylor
Vida Jimenez
(3 other candidates)
Lee defeats Ciaravino in runoff.
Taylor is endorsed.
12th - Current (appointed) Alder is Anabel Abarca
Runoff? - Only 2 candidates, not possible
Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:
Julia Ramirez
Anabel Abarca
Ramirez wins in first round. (This is going to be a close one.)
Ramirez is endorsed.
13th - Current Alder is Marty Quinn
Runoff? - Only 2 candidates, not possible
Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:
Marty Quinn
Paul Bruton
Quinn wins in first round.
Bruton is endorsed.
14th - Outgoing Alder is Ed Burke
Runoff? - Only 2 candidates, not possible
Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:
Jeylú Gutierrez
Raul Reyes
Gutierrez wins in first round.
Gutierrez is endorsed.
15th - Current Alder is Raymond Lopez
Runoff? - No
Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:
Raymond Lopez
Vicko Alvarez
(1 other candidate)
Lopez defeats Alvarez in close first round.
Alvarez is endorsed.
16th - Current Alder is Stephanie Coleman
Runoff? - No
Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:
Stephanie Coleman
Carolynn Crump
Eddie Johnson
Coleman wins in first round.
Coleman is endorsed.
18th - Current Alder is Derrick Curtis
Runoff? - Only 2 candidates, not possible
Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:
Heather Wills
Derrick Curtis
Wills wins in first round.
Wills is endorsed.
19th - Current Alder is Matt O'Shea
Runoff? - No
Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:
Matt O'Shea
Michael Cummings
Tim Noonan
O'Shea wins in first round.
Noonan is endorsed.
20th - Current Alder is Jeannette Taylor
Runoff? - No
Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:
Jeannette Taylor
Jennifer Maddox
Andre Smith
Taylor wins in first round.
Taylor is endorsed.
21st - Outgoing Alder is Howard Brookins
Runoff? - Yes
Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:
Ronnie Mosley
Preston Brown
Cornell Dantzler
Ayana Clark
Daliah Goree
(2 other candidates)
Mosley defeats Brown in runoff.
Clark is endorsed.
22nd - Current Alder is Michael Rodriguez
Runoff? - No
Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:
Michael Rodriguez
Neftalie Gonzalez
Rodriguez wins in first round.
Rodriguez is endorsed.
23rd - Current Alder is Silvana Tabares
Runoff? - Only 2 candidates, not possible
Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:
Silvana Tabares
Eddie Guillen
Tabares wins in first round.
Guillen is endorsed.
24th - Current (appointed) Alder is Monique Scott
Runoff? - Yes
Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:
Monique Scott
Creative Scott
Vetress Boyce
Luther Woodruff
(3 other candidates)
Monique Scott defeats Creative Scott in a close runoff.
No endorsement. Edward Ward is probably the most progressive choice here but doesn't seem to demonstrate any substantial support from what I can tell.
25th - Current Alder is Byron Sigcho
Runoff? - Only 2 candidates, not possible
Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:
Byron Sigcho
Aida Flores
Sigcho wins in close first round.
No endorsement. Sigcho is the more progressive option but I have concerns.
26th - Outgoing Alder is Roberto Maldonado
Runoff? - Yes
Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:
Jessie Fuentes
Julian Perez
Angee Rodriguez
Fuentes defeats Perez in runoff.
Fuentes is endorsed.
28th - Current Alder is Jason Ervin
Runoff? - Only 2 candidates, not possible
Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:
Jason Ervin
Shawn Walker
Ervin wins in first round.
No endorsement. Walker was placed back on the ballot late. He isn't a good candidate but neither is Ervin.
29th - Current Alder is Chris Taliaferro
Runoff? - No
Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:
Chris Taliaferro
Corey Dooley
CB Johnson
Taliaferro wins in first round.
No endorsement. Dooley is likely the most progressive ideologically.
30th - Outgoing Alder is Ariel Reboyras
Runoff? - Yes
Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:
Jessica Gutierrez
Ruth Cruz
Warren Williams
(1 other candidate)
Gutierrez defeats Cruz in runoff.
Williams is endorsed.
31st - Current Alder is Felix Cardona
Runoff? - Only 2 candidates, not possible
Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:
Felix Cardona
Esteban Burgoa Ontanon
Cardona wins in first round.
No endorsement.
33rd - Current Alder is Rossana Rodriguez
Runoff? - No
Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:
Rossana Rodriguez
Samie Martinez
Laith Shaaban
Rodriguez wins in first round.
Rodriguez is endorsed.
34th - New ward, outgoing Alder Carrie Austin's ward was removed
Runoff? - Only 2 candidates, not possible
Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:
Bill Conway
Jim Ascot
Conway wins in first round.
Ascot is endorsed.
36th - Current Alder is Gil Villegas
Runoff? - Yes
Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:
Gil Villegas
Lori Torres Whitt
David Herrera
Jackie Baez
Torres Whitt defeats Villegas in close runoff.
Torres Whitt is endorsed.
37th - Current Alder is Emma Mitts
Runoff? - No
Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:
Emma Mitts
Howard Ray
Jake Towers
(1 other candidate)
Mitts wins in first round.
No endorsement.
38th - Current Alder is Nick Sposato
Runoff? - Yes
Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:
Nick Sposato
Ed Bannon
(2 other candidates)
Sposato wins in first round.
Bannon is endorsed.
39th - Current Alder is Samantha Nugent
Runoff? - Only 2 candidates, not possible
Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:
Denali Dasgupta
Samantha Nugent
Dasgupta wins in first round.
Dasgupta is endorsed.
40th - Current Alder is Andre Vasquez
Runoff? - No
Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:
Andre Vasquez
Christian Blume
Vasquez wins in first round.
Vasquez is endorsed.
41st - Current Alder is Anthony Napolitano
Runoff? - Only 2 candidates, not possible
Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:
Paul Struebing
Anthony Napolitano
Struebing wins in very close first round.
Struebing is endorsed.
43rd - Current (appointed) Alder is Timmy Knudsen
Runoff? - Yes
Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:
Timmy Knudsen
Wendi Taylor Nations
Rebecca Janowitz
Brian Comer
Steve Botsford
(1 other candidate)
Taylor Nations defeats Knudsen in a close runoff.
No endorsement.
45th - Current Alder is Jim Gardiner
Runoff? - Yes
Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:
Jim Gardiner
Megan Mathias
Susanna Ernst
Marija Tomic
Mathias defeats Gardiner in close runoff.
Santoyo is endorsed.
46th - Outgoing Alder is James Cappleman
Runoff? - Yes
Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:
Kim Walz
Angela Clay
Marianne Lalonde
Roushaunda Williams
(2 other candidates)
Walz defeats Clay in close runoff.
Clay is endorsed.
48th - Outgoing Alder is Harry Osterman
Runoff? - Yes
Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:
Nick Ward
Joe Dunne
Leni Manaa-Hoppenworth
Isaac Freilich Jones
Andre Peloquin
(5 other candidates)
Dunne defeats Ward in close runoff.
No endorsement. Candidates for progressives to consider include Ward, Manaa-Hoppenworth, Svabek, Freilich Jones, and Faulkner
49th - Current Alder is Maria Hadden
Runoff? - No
Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:
Maria Hadden
Belia Rodriguez
Hadden wins in first round.
Hadden is endorsed.
50th - Current Alder is Debra Silverstein
Runoff? - Only 2 candidates, not possible
Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:
Debra Silverstein
Mueze Bawany
Silverstein wins in first round.
Bawany is endorsed.