Chicago Elections Reaction (Part 1)
Updated: Mar 14
Reactions below to each election, considering how well progressives fared, what surprises the night had, and first looks at runoff matchups. Future posts will analyze some of the trends in the numbers, look at the police district councils, and look ahead at the runoffs.
See current results here.
Further mail-in ballots representing roughly 15% of votes are continuing to be counted in the coming days, so results are not yet fully set.
[Edits made 3/14 to reflect full results]
Big Picture
Overall, it was a pretty good night for progressives, with Brandon Johnson making the runoff, every progressive incumbent likely holding their seats, three wards already electing a more progressive alder (with 5-10 more likely making at least incremental improvement with alders elected in runoffs), and a newly elected police district council that seems generally reform-positive and not a backfiring tool of obstruction to accountability. We won't quite have the semi-progressive majority I hoped for, but this cycle will be another significant step closer.
How did AlderMania endorsed candidates do?
10 won outright and three were unopposed
2 have strong possibilities of winning in runoffs (Hall and Clay)
1 made a runoff but faces an uphill battle (Torres Whitt)
3 I had overoptimistic hopes for ended up losing (Dasgupta, Wills, and Struebing)
15 that would have been surprise wins lost as expected
3 wards with runoffs have good progressive candidates I didn't originally endorse (Robinson/Butler in 4, Guajardo in 10, Manaa-Hoppenworth in 48)
How well did AlderMania predictions fare?
Correctly predicted if runoffs would be needed: 26 of 29 wards with 3+ candidates (+mayor)
Except 1st, 26th, 29th
Correctly predicted top vote-getter: 34 of 40 wards with 2+ candidates (+mayor)
Except 10th, 18th, 39th, 41st, 46th, 48th
Correctly predicted top 2 vote-getters in wards with predicted or actual runoffs: 10 of 16 (+mayor) (this is the most difficult prediction task and 5 of the 6 misses were in elections with 6+ candidates)
36 of 40 predicted eventual winners in contested wards are winning or in runoffs (+mayor)
Except 18th, 39th, 41st, 43rd
31 of 40 races went basically as expected with only minor variations, except:
5th- Overestimated Piemonte, underestimated Hone
6th- Overestimated Brutus, underestimated Wooten
10th- Underestimated Chico
18th- Last-minute over-optimism for Wills
29th- Overestimated Taliaferro and had the wrong second-place
39th- Last-minute over-optimism for Dasgupta
41st- Last-minute over-optimism for Streubing
43rd- Overestimated Taylor Nations, underestimated Comer
48th- Overestimated Ward, underestimated Manaa- Hoppenworth
Had I not made some misguided late changes (18, 39, 41) from overoptimism on the northwest and southwest sides, it would have been a highly accurate night.
Key Insights So Far
Incumbents had a good night: Only 1 lost and 7 are in runoffs which they are mostly likely to win
Lightfoot appointees struggled: The incumbent who lost and 3 out of the 7 in runoffs are the 4 alders Lightfoot appointed.
Lightfoot's so-called "landslide" in 2019 was a completely false narrative by a mostly national media that doesn't cover our politics carefully. She got less than 20% in the first round and only did so well in the runoff because of Preckwinkle's unpopularity, not her own popularity. She's largely been unpopular from the beginning, and that has culminated in an embarrassing loss where she placed third and had a smaller share of the vote now as an incumbent than she did in a crowded 2019 field with no incumbent.
Democratic Socialists have been fairly popular, likely to get all of their alders reelected and potentially add a new one in Angela Clay, but they seem to have struggled a bit in comparison to their non-DSA progressive counterparts- DSA's La Spata, Jeannette Taylor, Sigcho, Rossana Rodriguez all struggled some, hovering around 50%, and Sanchez, Ambria Taylor, Warren Williams, and Nick Ward didn't get that much traction, Bawany fell apart and was unendorsed, while non-DSA Hadden, Vasquez, Michael Rodriguez, and Martin all dominated their reelections, Jéylu Gutierrez, Julia Ramirez, and Jessie Fuentes won, and Robinson, Yancy, Hall, Guajardo, Torres Whitt, and Manaa-Hoppenworth all made runoffs. There are a couple of counterexamples one could give and some demographics at play, but overall it is worth noting DSA's relative weakness and the common thread of questions about working well with and respecting others that surround multiple DSA candidates, especially in light of stories from those within the progressive movement who have had issues with DSA. I'm not on the inside, but my uninformed impression is that some culture change might help DSA long-term.
Progressive organizing groups only can do so much on the south side, with candidates who progressive groups had united around only reaching low- to mid-20's at most (Yancy, Hall, Mosley, Sanchez). Robinson did best in 4th Ward, but he's a sitting legislator. The racial and class dynamics at work in how progressive organizing groups have made progress with voters in different parts of the city are intriguing and will be an interesting thread to follow in the mayoral runoff as Johnson courts Black and Latino votes.
Loudly pro-police candidates seem to me to have done very well with Latino and Asian voters, and that is a dynamic that should get more in-depth coverage. Most interesting are Chico in 10, Ciaravino and Don in 11, Lopez in 15, Tabares's strong police-funded showing in 23, Perez in 26, Martinez in 33, Villegas in 36, and I suspect even Sposato in 38. It's hard to measure this dynamic, and it's not a majority in most places, but the hard-line pro-police bloc in Chicago shouldn't be oversimplified to whites on the northwest and southwest sides.
Those southwest and northwest sides showed they are not ready for any kind of change though, with highly problematic incumbents (Napolitano, Gardiner, Curtis, Quinn) getting high vote shares even with decently funded challegers who seemed well-positioned to appeal to their wards but underperforming vs. my hopes for them (Struebing, Bannon, Bruton, Wills, Dasgupta, Noonan).
Chuy failed where he fought spitefully against progressives, with Martinez losing in 33, and Flores losing in 25. His candidates only outpaced progressive opponents in much more conservative wards (Guajardo in 10 and Villegas in 36) and still may very well lose their runoffs.
Mayor
Endorsed: Brandon Johnson
Predicted:
Vallas - 28
Johnson - 21
Lightfoot - 18
Garcia - 16
Wilson - 12
King - 3
Less than 3% - Buckner, Green, Sawyer
Results
Vallas - 32.9
Johnson - 21.6
Lightfoot - 16.8
Garcia - 13.7
Wilson - 9.1
Difference between predicted and current:
Vallas +4.9
Johnson +.6
Lightfoot -1.2
Garcia -2.3
Wilson -2.9
Johnson made the runoff!
This went as expected with the top 5 correctly predicted in order and all %'s nearly correct except underestimating Vallas.
Some polling was just about spot-on here and others were way off. As predicted, the ones that dramatically overrepresented Latinos in their sampling formula were the most distorted.
Vallas looks dangerously strong for a runoff with 34%.
Vallas-Johnson will be very close and the swing votes here will primarily be more moderate Black and Latino voters. Chuy's endorsement would be very significant and one would think it would go to Brandon Johnson over Paul Vallas, but Chuy has been shockingly anti-progressive and spiteful during this election.
1st Ward
Endorsed- La Spata
Predictions:
Runoff? - Yes
Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:
La Spata
Royko
Moreno
Schneider
La Spata defeats Royko in close runoff.
Current order for candidates over 10%:
La Spata
Royko
Schneider
La Spata narrowly avoided a runoff with 50%
I was debating until the last day whether this one would go to a runoff
Correctly predicted Royko as 2nd in a field with 3 well-funded challengers
Overestimated Moreno a bit, which I'm thankful for- voters are done with his corruption
La Spata was one of the most vulnerable clear progressives in the city and looks likely to win reelection- Democratic Socialists had a good night, returning their incumbents to office and maintaining their 2019 gains
2nd- Hopkins unopposed
3rd- Dowell unopposed
4th
Endorsed- Humphries
Predictions:
Lamont Robinson
Prentice Butler
Khari Humphries
(3 other candidates)
Robinson defeats Butler in runoff.
Current order for candidates over 10%:
Robinson
Butler
Lucas
Robinson clearly ahead with 45% and very likely to win runoff
Butler and Lucas essentially tied and mail-in ballots may make the difference on who makes the runoff
If current results hold, correctly predicted candidates in runoff
Endorsed candidate Humphries did not make the runoff but both Robinson and Butler are decent options and I'll need to consider them further to make a choice between them. The progressive orgs are behind Robinson but that's partially because of his political connections and I do think a ward chief-of-staff like Butler can make a good alder at times.
5th
Endorsed- Hare (or Piemonte)
Predictions:
Runoff? - Yes
Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:
Desmon Yancy
Gabriel Piemonte
Renita Ward
Jocelyn Hare
Tina Hone
(6 other candidates)
Yancy defeats Piemonte in runoff.
Current order for candidates over 10%:
Yancy
Hone
Ward
Goode
This was one of the wards that most defied my expectations. The wide open seats with huge candidate fields are often the toughest.
I definitely overestimated Gabriel Piemonte who had a strong vote share in 2019. That must have been mostly protest votes against the incumbent Leslie Hairston rather than significant postive support particularly for Piemonte.
Yancy-Hone is a tough runoff. Both say a lot of the right things but I have reasons for skepticism of both. Hard to say who will win, too. This will likely be a close one.
6th
Endorsed- Hall
Predictions:
Runoff? - Yes
Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:
William Hall
Patrick Brutus
Richard Wooten
Aja Kearney
(7 other candidates)
Hall defeats Brutus in runoff.
Current order for candidates over 10%:
Hall
Wooten
Hall and Wooten headed to a runoff here, both in mid-20s in first round.
Votes were spread widely in this wide-open race. There weren't huge surprises here, but I did overestimate Brutus, a staffer for outgoing Alder Roderick Sawyer.
This is going to be a close runoff, and Hall is the clear choice here.
Wooten's experience with running a significant campaign last time probably helped him break out in this large field without massive outside organizational backing.
Hall is the clear progressive choice for the runoff.
Tonight's results are showing progressive organizing is clearly strong but not at all dominant on the south side like it can be in some other parts of the city.
7th- Mitchell unopposed
8th
Endorsed- Flynn
Predictions:
Runoff? - No
Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:
Michelle Harris
Linda Hudson
Sean Flynn
Current order for candidates over 10%:
Harris
Hudson
Flynn
Harris reelected and avoids runoff.
No surprises here, results exactly as predicted
9th
No endorsement
Predictions:
Runoff? - No
Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:
Anthony Beale
Cleopatra Draper
(1 other candidate)
Current order for candidates over 10%:
Beale
Draper
Beale reelected and avoids runoff.
No surprises here, results exactly as predicted
10th
Endorsed- Sanchez
Predictions:
Runoff? - Yes
Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:
Ana Guajardo
Peter Chico
Oscar Sanchez
Jessica Venegas
(1 other candidate)
Guajardo defeats Chico in runoff.
Current order for candidates over 10%:
Chico
Guajardo
Sanchez
Venegas
Chico and Guajardo headed to a runoff.
I'm surprised by Chico's strength at 40%. This ward is less ready for semi-progressive continuation of Susan Sadlowski Garza's style than I would have expected. Conservative pro-police tendency among Chicago's Latinos should be a bigger and more well-reported story than it is.
This runoff will be close, but Chico is favored. He should easily pick up Venegas's votes and break 50%
Guajardo is absolutely the better choice for progressives in the runoff.
A Chico win here would be one of the only places where a ward switched to a more conservative alder in this election.
11th
Endorsed- Taylor
Predictions:
Runoff? - Yes
Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:
Nicole Lee
Tony Ciaravino
Ambria Taylor
Vida Jimenez
(3 other candidates)
Lee defeats Ciaravino in runoff.
Current order for candidates over 10%:
Lee
Ciaravino
Don
Taylor
Lee and Ciaravino headed to a runoff. Their vote totals are extremely close right now and mail-in votes will determine who was first place in the first round.
I underestimated Don Don here.
Vote totals do give a good reflection of the ideological and racial demographics of the ward (interesting that Latinos likely largely went for Ciaravino over Latino candidates though). Interesting to see some numbers put on the small but growing progressive minority in Bridgeport with the Taylor candidacy. Again Chinese and Latino backing for more conservative candidates like Ciaravino and Don is significant.
The runoff should be fairly close but Lee likely will win as originally predicted, as progressives resign themselves to her as the lesser of two evils. If Ciaravino does win, it will be an interesting sign that crime politics were more significant than racial identity politics for Don Don voters.
A Ciaravino win here would be one of the only places where a ward switched to a more conservative alder in this election.
12th
Endorsed- Ramirez
Predictions:
Runoff? - Only 2 candidates, not possible
Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:
Julia Ramirez
Anabel Abarca
Current order for candidates over 10%:
Ramirez
Abarca
Ramirez defeats Abarca in a rare challenger win over an incumbent.
Predictions were right on and no surprise here.
This is a big win for progressives that have been fighting to get Cardenas and friends out of running this ward for a long time. Ramirez will be a good ally to the council's progressives.
13th
Endorsed- Bruton
Predictions:
Runoff? - Only 2 candidates, not possible
Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:
Marty Quinn
Paul Bruton
Current order for candidates over 10%:
Quinn
Bruton
Quinn easily reelected and avoids runoff.
No surprise here, Madigan's ward will be the last holdout of the true old machine
14th
Endorsed- Gutierrez
Predictions:
Runoff? - Only 2 candidates, not possible
Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:
Jeylú Gutierrez
Raul Reyes
Current order for candidates over 10%:
Gutierrez
Reyes
Gutierrez elected as the Chuy machine continues to replace the Madigan-Burke machine on the southwest side. This is a major symbolic moment as Ed Burke finally leaves city council.
No surprise here- a fairly dominant win against a lackluster Burke ally in Reyes
15th
Endorsed- Alvarez
Predictions:
Runoff? - No
Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:
Raymond Lopez
Vicko Alvarez
(1 other candidate)
Current order for candidates over 10%:
Lopez
Alvarez
Williams
I'm surprised this one wasn't closer. Alvarez was a great progressive candidate. A lot of the ward was new territory to Lopez. Lopez did take advantage of a loophole in campaign finance to bring massive money into his campaign by receiving donations for a brief mayoral run first and then switching those funds to an alder campaign. I'm also seeing Alvarez allege some sketchy activity by Lopez on election day. He likely would have won anyway, but this one should have been closer and someone needs to defeat Lopez next time and get him out.
Wards like this one show it was not the night that optimistic progressives might have hoped for.
16th
Endorsed- Coleman
Predictions:
Runoff? - No
Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:
Stephanie Coleman
Carolynn Crump
Eddie Johnson
Current order for candidates over 10%:
Coleman
Crump
Coleman wins reelection without a runoff as expected.
No surprises here, with results as predicted (Johnson just under 10%)
17th- Moore unopposed
18th
Endorsed- Wills
Predictions:
Runoff? - Only 2 candidates, not possible
Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:
Heather Wills
Derrick Curtis
Current order for candidates over 10%:
Curtis
Wills
Curtis wins reelection
This was one of my small number of over-optimistic misguided prediction changes late in the process on the northwest and southwest sides. Wills didn't really end up that close, even with some union backing and Curtis having some embarrassing news coverage. Northwest and southwest sides are not ready for even moderate change.
19th
Endorsed- Noonan
Predictions:
Runoff? - No
Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:
Matt O'Shea
Michael Cummings
Tim Noonan
Current order for candidates over 10%:
O'Shea
Cummings
O'Shea wins reelection without a runoff even against a strong challenge from the right in Cummings, a retired police officer.
Noonan, running on the idea that the ward is shifting and has more diversity and progressiveness than people think, disappointingly only had 5%, continuing the narrative of northwest and southwest sides resisting any progressive progress.
Results basically as predicted, but I was optimistic Noonan would do a bit better
20th
Endorsed- Taylor
Predictions:
Runoff? - No
Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:
Jeannette Taylor
Jennifer Maddox
Andre Smith
Current order for candidates over 10%:
Taylor
Maddox
Smith
Taylor is just barely over 50% right now, so mail-in ballots will determine if she has to go to a runoff. She'd definitely be favored to win in a runoff.
No surprises here, results as predicted
Taylor continues the trend of even the more vulnerable members of the new progressive group elected in 2019 leading with large first-round margins.
21st
Endorsed- Clark
Predictions:
Runoff? - Yes
Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:
Ronnie Mosley
Preston Brown
Cornell Dantzler
Ayana Clark
Daliah Goree
(2 other candidates)
Mosley defeats Brown in runoff.
Current order for candidates over 10%:
Mosley
Dantzler
Brown
Goree
Kwaza
The top three are all still pretty close here and mail-in ballots could rearrange who makes the runoff.
I went back and forth on who to predict would be in this runoff against Mosley, between Dantzler and Brown. We'll see how it shakes out.
This will be a very unpredictable runoff. I think Mosley would have been much stronger in the first round and favored in the runoff had there not been a story just before the election about him inflating claims about his education. I suspect at this point it's very possible he'll lose the runoff and a candidate without major outside organizational support could get a rare win.
Mosley is probably the best progressive choice here but I'm not excited about him.
This race continues the narrative that progressive/union organizing groups can only do so much in wide-open south side wards.
22nd
Endorsed- Rodriguez
Predictions:
Runoff? - No
Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:
Michael Rodriguez
Neftalie Gonzalez
(1 other candidate)
Current order for candidates over 10%:
Rodriguez
Armendariz
Gonzalez
Rodriguez easily won reelection without a runoff, as expected.
Young challenger Armendariz did surprisingly well (still just 17%). I would have thought Gonzalez would have gotten more of the small minority protest vote against popular Alder Rodriguez, after Gonzalez's previous run.
23rd
Endorsed- Guillen
Predictions:
Runoff? - Only 2 candidates, not possible
Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:
Silvana Tabares
Eddie Guillen
Current order for candidates over 10%:
Tabares
Guillen
Tabares won reelection, but more easily than I expected in this civil war of the southwest side machine. Big funding from the police union and others overcame support for Guillen by some parts of the remaining Madigan machine.
24th
No endorsement
Predictions:
Runoff? - Yes
Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:
Monique Scott
Creative Scott
Vetress Boyce
Luther Woodruff
(3 other candidates)
Monique Scott defeats Creative Scott in a close runoff.
Current order for candidates over 10%:
M. Scott
C. Scott
Boyce
Monique Scott headed to a runoff, likely against Creative Scott, though mail-in ballots could put Boyce into the runoff still.
No surprises here, Monique Scott likely to win reelection
No progressive options here
25th
No endorsement
Predictions:
Runoff? - Only 2 candidates, not possible
Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:
Byron Sigcho
Aida Flores
Current order for candidates over 10%:
Sigcho
Flores
Sigcho looks very likely to win in this tight race, though mail-in votes are still coming in
As expected, this was very close. Progressives defeated Chuy and friends here, in a story that repeated elsewhere.
26th
Endorsed- Fuentes
Predictions:
Runoff? - Yes
Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:
Jessie Fuentes
Julian Perez
Angee Rodriguez
Fuentes defeats Perez in runoff.
Current order for candidates over 10%:
Fuentes
Perez
Rodriguez
Fuentes is a bit over 50% and thankfully looks likely to avoid a runoff here against Perez who was running much farther to the right.
This is a big win for progressives, adding another impressive young ally to their coalition.
27th- Burnett unopposed
28th
No endorsement
Predictions:
Runoff? - Only 2 candidates, not possible
Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:
Jason Ervin
Shawn Walker
Current order for candidates over 10%:
Ervin
Walker
Ervin easily defeats a Republican for reelection after Walker was re-added to the ballot late on appeal. No surprise here.
29th
No endorsement
Predictions:
Runoff? - No
Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:
Chris Taliaferro
Corey Dooley
CB Johnson
Current order for candidates over 10%:
Taliaferro
Johnson
Incorrectly predicted Taliaferro to avoid runoff.
This is one that surprised me. Johnson leveraged grassroots organizing background (without a lot of the traditional resources and backing that signal a strong challenger) to get over 1/3 of the vote and push Taliaferro to a runoff.
I think Taliaferro was being seen as not pro-cop enough due to his role as Public Safety Chair during some key policy changes, though he's really pretty pro-cop and Johnson's not really far-right. Police went after him hard for a couple of decisions.
Taliaferro's failed run for a judge position also probably hurt him significantly, opening him to attacks about his investment in the job.
30th
Endorsed- Williams
Predictions:
Runoff? - Yes
Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:
Jessica Gutierrez
Ruth Cruz
Warren Williams
(1 other candidate)
Gutierrez defeats Cruz in runoff.
Current order for candidates over 10%:
Gutierrez
Cruz
Williams
Prieto
Gutierrez and Cruz going to a runoff.
Results are as predicted here.
I think Williams did far better than people looking just at demographics, backgrounds, and resources would have expected. The People's Lobby and other groups invested deeply here for one of their own key staffers and nearly got him into a runoff. (I did a bit of calling for Williams myself!) This is a ward that has hope for progressive gains in the future.
Gutierrez is favored in a runoff, but probably not as strongly as people would have expected six months ago.
Gutierrez is probably the better progressive option but there are concerns with her move toward the center over the past four years and her connections with developers. I'll be digging into this one more deeply.
31st
No endorsement
Predictions:
Runoff? - Only 2 candidates, not possible
Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:
Felix Cardona
Esteban Burgoa Ontanon
Current order for candidates over 10%:
Cardona
Burgoa Ontanon
Cardona easily won reelection, as expected.
32nd- Waguespack unopposed
33rd
Endorsed- Rodriguez
Predictions:
Runoff? - No
Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order
Rossana Rodriguez
Samie Martinez
Laith Shaaban
Current order for candidates over 10%:
Rodriguez
Martinez
Shaaban
Rodriguez looks likely to narrowly avoid a runoff and win reelection
No surprises here, results ended up as predicted in a highly contentious race.
Chuy's ill-conceived alliance with the old machine and the police union didn't work out for him as popular first-term progressives like Rodriguez survived across the city
34th
Endorsed- Ascot
Predictions:
Runoff? - Only 2 candidates, not possible
Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:
Bill Conway
Jim Ascot
Current order for candidates over 10%:
Conway
Ascot
Conway won easily here, as expected, but Ascot did far better on dollars spent per vote received, reflecting discontent with Conway's dropping in to basically buy the seat with big money as a stepping stone on his way elsewhere.
35th- Rosa unopposed
36th
Endorsed- Torres Whitt
Predictions:
Runoff? - Yes
Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:
Gil Villegas
Lori Torres Whitt
David Herrera
Jackie Baez
Torres Whitt defeats Villegas in close runoff.
Current order for candidates over 10%:
Villegas
Torres Whitt
Herrera
Villegas and Torres Whitt are headed to a runoff.
I was expecting Villegas would lead in the first round and anti-Villegas votes would unite behind Torres Whitt in the runoff to push her to victory, but the gap between them looks likely to be too much to overcome.
Baez likely would have been over 10% had she not gotten arrested days before the election.
37th
No endorsement
Predictions:
Runoff? - No
Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:
Emma Mitts
Howard Ray
Jake Towers
(1 other candidate)
Current order for candidates over 10%:
Mitts
Ray
Mitts easily won reelection, as expected.
No surprises here, but I think the contrast with Taliaferro in the neighboring 29th is interesting and highlight's his surprising weakness.
38th
Endorsed- Bannon
Predictions:
Runoff? - No (I had a typo on my predictions post here that said yes, but it said "Sposato wins in first round" below it, which was the actual prediction. This was a late change.)
Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:
Nick Sposato
Ed Bannon
(2 other candidates)
Current order for candidates over 10%:
Sposato
Bannon
Santos
Sposato won reelection with just a bit over 50%, as expected.
Bannon made a strong showing for a fairly progressive candidate in this tough northwest side ward, doing better than most others in northwest/southwest wards.
39th
Endorsed- Dasgupta
Predictions:
Runoff? - Only 2 candidates, not possible
Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:
Denali Dasgupta
Samantha Nugent
Current order for candidates over 10%:
Nugent
Dasgupta
Ok, I got my hopes up volunteering for this campaign. There is a lot of discontent with Nugent, but the ward is just too unfriendly to progressives. Nugent won fairly easily.
This was one of my small number of over-optimistic misguided prediction changes late in the process on the northwest and southwest sides.
I was very surprised this wasn't at least closer- these northwest/southwest side wards really don't want to see change.
40th
Endorsed- Vasquez
Predictions:
Runoff? - No
Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:
Andre Vasquez
Christian Blume
Current order for candidates over 10%:
Vasquez
Blume
Vasquez won reelection easily here- another popular 2019 progressive reelected with broad support.
41st
Endorsed- Streubing
Predictions:
Runoff? - Only 2 candidates, not possible
Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:
Paul Struebing
Anthony Napolitano
Current order for candidates over 10%:
Napolitano
Struebing
Napolitano won easily here despite being a very bad alder and Streubing having significant organizational support for a challenger.
This was one of my small number of over-optimistic misguided prediction changes late in the process on the northwest and southwest sides. I overestimated voters' willingness to reject their really bad alders. Instead, pro-cop ideology won out consistently over integrity and competence.
42nd- Reilly unopposed
43rd
No endorsement
Predictions:
Runoff? - Yes
Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:
Timmy Knudsen
Wendi Taylor Nations
Rebecca Janowitz
Brian Comer
Steve Botsford
(1 other candidate)
Taylor Nations defeats Knudsen in a close runoff.
Current order for candidates over 10%:
Knudsen
Comer
Janowitz
Taylor Nations
It looks likely to be a Knudsen-Comer runoff here. Votes were very widely spread across candidates. This should be a close and unpredictable runoff.
Knudsen is likely the better candidate for progressives but neither of these are good.
Lightfoot's appointees all struggled and I wouldn't be shocked at all to see Knudsen lose here.
I was pretty surprised by the order here, but it was another of those wide open fields with little margin between the candidates.
44th- Bennett unopposed
45th
Endorsed- Santoyo
Predictions:
Runoff? - Yes
Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:
Jim Gardiner
Megan Mathias
Susanna Ernst
Marija Tomic
(2 other candidates)
Mathias defeats Gardiner in close runoff.
Current order for candidates over 10%:
Gardiner
Mathias
Suh
Ernst
Gardiner looks pretty strong for the runoff here, even though he is absolutely ridiculous and should be nowhere near public office.
Mathias is best to support here, in an anyone-but-Gardiner effort. We'll see if enough of the ward feels the same to bring her from 16% to over 50%.
46th
Endorsed- Clay
Predictions:
Runoff? - Yes
Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:
Kim Walz
Angela Clay
Marianne Lalonde
Roushaunda Williams
(2 other candidates)
Walz defeats Clay in close runoff.
Current order for candidates over 10%:
Clay
Walz
Lalonde
Nagle
Clay and Walz are going to a runoff here, and it looks more optimistic for Clay than I would have expected. This would be another huge gain for progressives. The runoff looks like it will be very close. If you have free time this month, this is a race to invest it in.
This one mostly went as expected, though Clay and Nagle both did better than I thought.
This was a big improvement for Clay over 2019, as progressive groups really united behind her this time.
47th- Martin unopposed
48th
No endorsement
Predictions:
Runoff? - Yes
Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:
Nick Ward
Joe Dunne
Leni Manaa-Hoppenworth
Isaac Freilich Jones
Andre Peloquin
(5 other candidates)
Dunne defeats Ward in close runoff.
Current order for candidates over 10%:
Dunne
Manaa-Hoppenworth
Ward
Freilich Jones
Dunne is going to a runoff, likely with Manaa-Hoppenworth, unless there are major shifts from the mail-in ballots.
This went somewhat as expected for such large field. Peloquin was surprisingly weak for the amount of resources he had, so must have just not had much grassroots support.
It seems like the story about handling of a campaign worker and racial dynamics in and around the Ward campaign likely put Manaa-Hoppenworth into the runoff instead of Ward. It seems very possibly that Girl, I Guess's publicizing of the dynamics there may have played a significant role in the outcome, especially as this was her longtime home ward, she endorseded Manaa-Hoppenworth, and it is so close between those two candidates for 2nd.
Ward really talked up how much grassroots volunteer strength he had, was majorly backed by progressive orgs, and seemed much more organized and message-disciplined. I'm curious what really happened here.
Yet to be seen is if the progressives here can put aside a lot of contentious differences and unite to defeat Joe Dunne. This is going to to be a very close one. The Johnson-Vallas runoff will help bring out progressives here and possibly help Manaa-Hoppenworth win. She is the clear choice for progressives here.
49th
Endorsed- Hadden
Predictions:
Runoff? - No
Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:
Maria Hadden
Belia Rodriguez
Current order for candidates over 10%:
Hadden
Rodriguez
Morton
Hadden won reelection easily here- another popular 2019 progressive reelected with broad support.
50th
Endorsed- Bawany
Predictions:
Runoff? - Only 2 candidates, not possible
Candidates likely to get at least 10% in first round, in predicted results order:
Debra Silverstein
Mueze Bawany
Current order for candidates over 10%:
Silverstein
Bawany
Silverstein won pretty easily here, as expected.
Bawany had a good campaign and there is hope for progressives here, but what was already an uphill battle became an impossible one after Bawany's controversial past tweets went public.