Chicago Election Reaction (Part 4 - prediction/endorsement results)
So how did those predictions and endorsements turn out? How did they compare to 2019 results?
Executive Branch Endorsements
Brandon Johnson - endorsed and won!
Here's how the other predictions and endorsements fared (format is correct-incorrect):
Executive Branch Predictions
| 2019 (Mayor + Treasurer) | 2023 | Notes |
Original Predicted Winner Elected | 0-2 (Had predicted Daley and Pawar) | 1-0 | (2023- Had predicted Johnson-Vallas runoff and Johnson most likely to win in that case, but considered Vallas-Lightfoot runoff very possible, therefore Vallas higher total probability of winning; 2019- Had predicted Daley-Preckwinkle runoff and Daley most likely to win in that case, but did consider Lightfoot very possible for a runoff and the most likely of the 3 to win runoff if making it into one) |
Runoff Needed? | 2-0 | 1-0 | |
Runoff Candidates Both Predicted Correctly? | 1-1 (Had predicted Daley-Preckwinkle runoff) | 1-0 | |
Runoff Predicted Winner Elected | 2-0 | 0-1 | Had predicted narrow Vallas win by the time of the runoff |
Alder Endorsements
| 2019 | 2023 |
Initial Endorsed Candidates Winning Elections without Runoffs | 9-20 | 10-11 |
Initial Endorsed Candidates Making Runoffs | 8-8 | 3-7 |
Endorsed Candidates for Runoffs Winning | 5-9 | 8-4 |
Overall, a decent election for progressives and for preventing some of the worst outcomes from happening- only a few endorsed candidates with semi-realistic chances that fell short (Sanchez, Alvarez, Wills, Williams, Whitt, Dasgupta)
Alder Predictions
| 2019 | 2023 |
Original Predicted Winner Elected | 33-11 | 30-10 |
Runoff Needed? | 19-9 | 26-3 |
Runoff Candidates Both Predicted Correctly? | 9-3 | 8-5 |
Runoff Predicted Winner Elected | 13-2 | 10-2 |
Not too many surprises here- most incorrect projections were in elections with large fields of candidates or were from a bit of overoptimism about the far edges of the city (Wills, Dasgupta, Streubing, Whitt, Mathias, Guajardo losing to concerning incumbents Curtis, Nugent, Napolitano, Villegas, Gardiner and FOP-backed newcomer Chico) but it was clear when the runoff came around that those in that group who had made a runoff were unlikely to win. Leni Manaa-Hoppenworth was the most surprising winner to me in this cycle, overcoming (without a lot of resources) a well-funded establishment candidate in Joe Dunne (who even got SEIU backing in the runoff) as well as a candidate backed by nearly all the progressive organizing groups in Nick Ward. Chris Taliaferro's very-near-loss was the other big surprise to me, going to a runoff and nearly losing to a much less-known and less-funded challenger while being an incumbent without major controversy.