Chicago Election Reaction (Part 4 - prediction/endorsement results)

So how did those predictions and endorsements turn out? How did they compare to 2019 results?

Executive Branch Endorsements

Brandon Johnson - endorsed and won!

Here's how the other predictions and endorsements fared (format is correct-incorrect):

Executive Branch Predictions

	2019 (Mayor + Treasurer)	2023	Notes
Original Predicted Winner Elected	0-2 (Had predicted Daley and Pawar)	1-0	(2023- Had predicted Johnson-Vallas runoff and Johnson most likely to win in that case, but considered Vallas-Lightfoot runoff very possible, therefore Vallas higher total probability of winning; 2019- Had predicted Daley-Preckwinkle runoff and Daley most likely to win in that case, but did consider Lightfoot very possible for a runoff and the most likely of the 3 to win runoff if making it into one)
Runoff Needed?	2-0	1-0
Runoff Candidates Both Predicted Correctly?	1-1 (Had predicted Daley-Preckwinkle runoff)	1-0
Runoff Predicted Winner Elected	2-0	0-1	Had predicted narrow Vallas win by the time of the runoff

Alder Endorsements

	2019	2023
Initial Endorsed Candidates Winning Elections without Runoffs	9-20	10-11
Initial Endorsed Candidates Making Runoffs	8-8	3-7
Endorsed Candidates for Runoffs Winning	5-9	8-4

Overall, a decent election for progressives and for preventing some of the worst outcomes from happening- only a few endorsed candidates with semi-realistic chances that fell short (Sanchez, Alvarez, Wills, Williams, Whitt, Dasgupta)

Alder Predictions

	2019	2023
​Original Predicted Winner Elected	33-11	30-10
Runoff Needed?	19-9	26-3
Runoff Candidates Both Predicted Correctly?	9-3	8-5
Runoff Predicted Winner Elected	13-2	10-2

Not too many surprises here- most incorrect projections were in elections with large fields of candidates or were from a bit of overoptimism about the far edges of the city (Wills, Dasgupta, Streubing, Whitt, Mathias, Guajardo losing to concerning incumbents Curtis, Nugent, Napolitano, Villegas, Gardiner and FOP-backed newcomer Chico) but it was clear when the runoff came around that those in that group who had made a runoff were unlikely to win. Leni Manaa-Hoppenworth was the most surprising winner to me in this cycle, overcoming (without a lot of resources) a well-funded establishment candidate in Joe Dunne (who even got SEIU backing in the runoff) as well as a candidate backed by nearly all the progressive organizing groups in Nick Ward. Chris Taliaferro's very-near-loss was the other big surprise to me, going to a runoff and nearly losing to a much less-known and less-funded challenger while being an incumbent without major controversy.