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Chicago Election Reaction (Part 4 - prediction/endorsement results)

So how did those predictions and endorsements turn out? How did they compare to 2019 results?


Executive Branch Endorsements

Brandon Johnson - endorsed and won!


Here's how the other predictions and endorsements fared (format is correct-incorrect):


Executive Branch Predictions

2019 (Mayor + Treasurer)

2023

Notes

Original Predicted Winner Elected

0-2 (Had predicted Daley and Pawar)

1-0

(2023- Had predicted Johnson-Vallas runoff and Johnson most likely to win in that case, but considered Vallas-Lightfoot runoff very possible, therefore Vallas higher total probability of winning; 2019- Had predicted Daley-Preckwinkle runoff and Daley most likely to win in that case, but did consider Lightfoot very possible for a runoff and the most likely of the 3 to win runoff if making it into one)

Runoff Needed?

2-0

1-0

Runoff Candidates Both Predicted Correctly?

1-1 (Had predicted Daley-Preckwinkle runoff)

1-0

Runoff Predicted Winner Elected

2-0

0-1

Had predicted narrow Vallas win by the time of the runoff

Alder Endorsements

2019

2023

Initial Endorsed Candidates Winning Elections without Runoffs

9-20

10-11

Initial Endorsed Candidates Making Runoffs

8-8

3-7

Endorsed Candidates for Runoffs Winning

5-9

8-4

Overall, a decent election for progressives and for preventing some of the worst outcomes from happening- only a few endorsed candidates with semi-realistic chances that fell short (Sanchez, Alvarez, Wills, Williams, Whitt, Dasgupta)


Alder Predictions

2019

2023

​Original Predicted Winner Elected

33-11

30-10

Runoff Needed?

19-9

26-3

Runoff Candidates Both Predicted Correctly?

9-3

8-5

Runoff Predicted Winner Elected

13-2

10-2

Not too many surprises here- most incorrect projections were in elections with large fields of candidates or were from a bit of overoptimism about the far edges of the city (Wills, Dasgupta, Streubing, Whitt, Mathias, Guajardo losing to concerning incumbents Curtis, Nugent, Napolitano, Villegas, Gardiner and FOP-backed newcomer Chico) but it was clear when the runoff came around that those in that group who had made a runoff were unlikely to win. Leni Manaa-Hoppenworth was the most surprising winner to me in this cycle, overcoming (without a lot of resources) a well-funded establishment candidate in Joe Dunne (who even got SEIU backing in the runoff) as well as a candidate backed by nearly all the progressive organizing groups in Nick Ward. Chris Taliaferro's very-near-loss was the other big surprise to me, going to a runoff and nearly losing to a much less-known and less-funded challenger while being an incumbent without major controversy.

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