2022 Prediction Results
2022 was a challenging election for predictions as many overestimated Republican performance nationally, including me.
In the Senate, 29 out of 34 predictions were correct, with the 5 races expected to be the closest Republican victories all going to Democrats (AZ, NH, PA, GA, NV). Predictions in 2016, 2018, and 2020 were all over 90% accurate in the Senate.
Governor predictions were more accurate this year, with 34 out of 36 correct. Only Wisconsin and Arizona were missed. This was stronger than 2018's 32 out of 36 but weaker than the smaller 2020 cycle in which I was 11 for 11.
US House projections (414 out of 435) went similarly to 2020 (412 out of 435) except the overestimation was for Republicans instead of Democrats this year.
Locally, predictions went well for statewide executives and Supreme Court (7-0), county-level officials (19-1, missing only Matt Podgorski's 9th district county commissioner race), and contested Chicago-area state legislative races (31-1, missing only embattled State Senator Michael Hastings narrow win declared weeks after the election). On the whole these were slightly stronger than previous years.
Looking forward to municipal elections!